Locked In or Left Behind: Why Biochar Offtakes Define the Future of Carbon Removal

The industrial biochar market is entering uncharted territory. According to new data from carbon removal marketplace Supercritical, 89% of 2025 carbon removal credits are already committed—a sharp jump from 62% just a few months ago in March. For context, this means the majority of high-quality credits for the year ahead are spoken for before Q4 even begins.

Demand Surges, Supply Lags

Supercritical’s latest analysis, which monitors over 80% of the global supply, shows that buyers are racing to secure reliable, high-integrity credits as demand accelerates and supply underperforms projections.

• Prices are climbing: Biochar prices rose 18% in 2024 and another 8% between Q2 and Q3 2025.

• Premiums for operational projects: Live, running projects are now trading at a 10–20% premium over pipeline projects.

• Future years in focus: Even 2026 credits are moving quickly—40% are already locked into offtake agreements.

• Buyer savings: Companies signing multi-year offtakes today are saving up to 31% compared to spot purchases

“High-quality projects are in high demand and commanding significant premiums. Companies that act now can lock in both certainty and price stability.” ~ Sandy Doran, Supercritical’s Supply Lead

What’s Driving the Tightening?

Several structural dynamics are converging to make biochar credits scarce:

1. Supply below forecast: Supplier capacity is 23% under expectations, largely due to construction delays and financing challenges.

2. Quality matters more than ever: Nearly all high-integrity projects are sold out, while 80% of credits from failed or lower-quality projects remain unsold

3. Buyers planning further ahead: Multi-year offtakes are now the norm. As the report warns: “The credits that used to sit on the shelf until December are now gone by September.”

Why Offtakes Are the New Normal

For years, spot purchases dominated carbon credit procurement. That era is ending.

Offtake agreements—multi-year contracts that secure future credits before they are issued—are now the backbone of biochar’s growth. They provide a few benefits:

• Supply security: Guaranteeing access in a market where top-tier 2025 supply is already 89% committed.

• Price stability: Discounts of 15–30% compared to spot markets, with clauses like “most favored nation” to hedge against price drops.

• Financing for scale: Bankable contracts give suppliers the certainty needed to build facilities, unlock financing, and expand operations.

“The market is already splitting in two. The companies locking in offtakes now control future supply, stabilize prices, and guarantee their path to net zero.” Michelle You, CEO of Supercritical

The Risks of Waiting

The risks are clear for companies that delay:

• Intensifying price pressure: Biochar prices have grown at a 29% compound annual rate over the last four years

• Scarce high-quality supply: Only 30% of projects pass Supercritical’s vetting, while 70% of 2026 pipeline supply is deemed lower quality

• Spot market uncertainty: Buyers relying on last-minute spot purchases risk paying a steep premium—or worse, missing their net-zero targets altogether.

The Bigger Picture

The voluntary carbon market (VCM)—especially for biochar—is maturing into a seller’s market. Acting early, committing to multi-year offtakes, and prioritizing high-quality supply are no longer optional; they’re survival strategies.

With over 10,000 companies signed up to SBTi commitments but only 537 currently buying carbon removal credits, a massive wave of latent demand is about to hit the market. If even 10% of those companies start buying today, the market would need to scale 25x its current capacity—a gap that only long-term commitments can close.

A Greenchar Perspective

At Greenchar Climate Solutions, we see these shifts up close. The tightening market reinforces our mission: to deliver high-integrity, MRV-backed biochar credits that help companies secure their pathway to net zero.

Why Greenchar?

• High-Integrity Supply: Only credits from vetted, certified projects.

• Regional Strength: Strong presence across Singapore, China, and Southeast Asia, with partnerships that align with local policy and infrastructure.

• MRV-Driven Trust: Transparent, automated monitoring systems that build buyer confidence and protect premium pricing.

The message is clear: the window is closing. Companies that wait will face rising prices, scarce supply, and reputational risks tied to lower-quality offsets.

👉 Partner with Greenchar today to secure high-quality biochar credits and lock in your pathway to net zero tomorrow. Contact us at jaryl@greenchar.co to explore offtake opportunities.